08 December 2015

#NoEstimates: Agile Planning

I like the concept of “no estimates”. It’s a methodology production pattern, which helps to reduce the delay and optimize internal work of the team.

When we are trying to estimate complex staff, we could notice, what the result is not always perfect : 25% of projects failed / 50% late / 25% sucessful => the average time overrun is 222%, the average cost overrun 189%.

And even planning poker leads to the overtime, and doesn’t give as the right answer, as the reason, why each person chosed that or that number of points could be not the same. Velocity is a measure of institutional friction : Velocity = ideal time / actual time => The only way to improve velocity is to reduce friction

“Excessive or irrational schedules are probably the single most destructive influence in all of software” (Casper jones, 1991)

So the idea is : Prioritize. Iterate. Don’t estimate => Do the most valuable thing first.

Taiichi Ohno (Toyota Production System = Lean Manufacturing) => Give the watch to the people who do the work => The developers control time => The business side decides what to build


  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-zy4i6F0lI
  • http://www.holub.com/slides/NoEstimates.key.pdf
  • http://agiliaconference.com/engine/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/2015-AgiliaConference-Henri-Karhatsu.pdf
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Production_System
  • http://noestimatesbook.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/NoEstimates-book-Chapter-1-We-suck-at-estimation.pdf
  • http://sddconf.com/brands/sdd/library/No_Estimates.pdf

© 2017 Fedir RYKHTIK